"You came here no 1 in the world, and you're going home no 2.."

It's funny, I never much liked Geoffrey Boycott, but my opinion of him changed slightly when he made the above comment to an Australian on the Sunday morning of the fourth test at Trent Bridge.

On the face of it he would seem to have a point. Since the Australian team's overwhelming victory at Lords, they have been outplayed by England in each of the three subsequent tests. The matches have been exciting because of the standard of cricket played throughout, and also because in each match, Australia, staring defeat in the face, have fought tooth and nail to avoid it. Both Shane Warne and Brett Lee, in England's second innings at Trent Bridge, clearly believed that between them they could skittle England for less than the 129 runs required for victory, and came frighteningly close, but the tail-enders held their nerve and saw England home.
When the Australians arrived here at the start of the summer and headed for France to pay their respects at war graves, I wondered if they had any idea that this tour could mark the beginning of the end for them, at least in terms of their hegemony in world cricket.

Knowing what I know now, I doubt it. After Lords there were boasts from their camp that they could win the series 5-0. How they must have wished they had kept their mouths shut, especially when England went 2-1 up, rendering it impossible for Australia to win the series.

This boils down largely to complacency, which is reflected in the make-up of their team. For example, they assumed they could make do with four bowlers. This is all well and good if all four are fit and in form, but not when their leading seamer, Glenn McGrath, falls over a cricket ball during a warm up, misses a match, and then having made a miraculous recovery to take part in the next test, goes down with a recurring elbow injury in the fourth.

Jason Gillespie has been a shadow of his former self, and in the first test it was palpable that he had lost the pace and zip that broke the finger of the England captain during his last visit to these shores in 2001. England's batsmen wasted no time in exposing the weak link, and after taking 3 wickets for 300 runs, Australia were forced to make changes while England kept an unchanged side. Dizzy had, quite literally, been hit out of the attack.

Similarly, two of Australia's most destructive batsmen, Matthew Hayden and Adam Gilchrist, have failed to inflict the kind of mayhem that was expected of them. Hayden has now not scored a hundred in his last 30 innings. Australia made no contingency plans should his poor form continue during this tour, and, as there is no other specialist opener in their squad Hayden will almost certainly keep his place at the Oval - but I think it is equally certain that Justin Langer will have a new opening partner after this tour.

Gilchrist's case is rather different I feel - he is a unique talent, but is nonetheless human, and being the pivotal player that he is, England have left no stone unturned in working out how to deal with him. England's best bowler, Flintoff, has now dismissed him four times in as many tests and the best keeper/batsman of all time is rapidly becoming his "bunny". A corollary of this is that Gilchrist's confidence has been dented, and the other area of his game - keeping wicket - has suffered. He is spilling catches he would normally snaffle, which could be put down to pressure, but if he struggles with one side of his game he can never be completely relaxed in the other. He will retain his place after this tour, but time alone will tell if he keeps his reputation as the world's most feared batsman.

It seems that England have now become masters of "mental disintegration". More importantly they went into this series believing Australia were fallible. I'm not sure the same can be said of other England teams in Ashes series since 1987.

At every stage of the series Australia have stated that they had been following England's progress over the last year or so, and knew they were up against a much-improved team. It is clear now that they have a healthy respect for their opponents - the fact that the players have been sharing a beer after tense matches such as the Trent Bridge is testament to that - but I'm not sure Australia knew just how much England had improved in areas such as mental toughness. More importantly perhaps, I don't think they stopped to consider the scope for improvement that existed - and still exists - within the team.

After the first test Australia made no secret of their plans to target Ashley Giles so that Vaughan would have no option other than to increase the workloads of Harmison and Flintoff, thus wearing them out. Best laid plans and all that - they clearly hadn't reckoned with a muscular Welshman by the name of Jones stepping up to plate and taking 18 wickets at an average of 21.

I am particularly pleased with this. Not just because young Simon attracts a great deal of female interest in the game - always a good thing! No, I am delighted for him because I feel it is just reward. It has taken a lot of hard work, determination and sheer guts for Jones to come back from that horrible injury at Brisbane in 2002, and he sets a fine example to us all. I told a few people earlier in the summer he could be the surprise package of the series, and I was right. Funny to think that England's hopes of finally regaining the Ashes seem to depend on whether he recovers from injury in time for the Oval test. I'm quietly confident he will.

My prediction for the fifth and final test? Keep watching this space.